With major league players set to join their clubs for Spring Training in the next few weeks, we at Minor-ity Report turn our attention to top prospects in double and triple A who might earn a call up to their major league affiliate early this season. Focusing initially on the top talent in the adanced levels of the minors, this week we analyze: Jay Bruce, Evan Longoria and Cameron Maybin
1. Jay Bruce (Reds, OF)
Cincinatti felt so confident that Jay Bruce (“JB”) would be Major League ready by 2008 (or shortly thereafter) that they traded Josh Hamilton for Edison Volquez in an effort to add depth to their rotation. Although many felt that the Reds had short-changed themselves in dealing Hamilton , it is clear that Jay Bruce has made a strong bid for a job to start 2008.
At just 20 years of age, Bruce began 2007 in Sarasota of the Florida State League. We say began, because Jay Bruce sped through three levels of A ball, culminating 2007’s effort in AAA. Never slowing after promotion, Bruce batted .325, notched 11 homers and hit a surreal 27 doubles with 4 steals in 268 at bats in Sarasota . Only registering 66 at bats in double A, Bruce hit .333 with 4 homers and two steals in that limited stint. Apparently un-phased by single and double A, Cincinnati brass decided to promote JB to Louisville (AAA) where he batted .305 with 11 homers, 12 doubles, and 2 steals in 168 at bats.
Year-end totals in 2007 for Jay Bruce look something like: 26 homers, 89 RBI, 8 steals, and a .319 average. Having dealt Josh Hamilton and shifted Ken Griffey, Jr. to right field, the Reds have committed to Jay Bruce as their future center fielder. The stage is set for Jay Bruce to take the Major Leagues by storm in 2008. While we think that Bruce’s plate patience and BB:K ratio could afford improvement, he remains a credible threat to damage the ERA's of opposing pitchers as early as 2008.
2. Cameron Maybin (Marlins, OF)
You might recognize Cameron Maybin as the integral part of the prospect package that netted Detroit stars Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. Selected by the Detroit Tigers in the first round, 10th overall, in the 2005 amateur draft, the 6’4 Maybin has taken the minor leagues by storm since beginning his professional career in 2006 at 19 years of age. In the Midwest League (A), Maybin hit 9 homers, batted in 66 runs, and stole 27 bases in 34 attempts in all of 380 at bats while hitting .303.
To begin the 2007 season, Maybin posted a .304 average while hitting 10 homers, 14 doubles, and stealing 25 bases in 31 attempts in 296 at bats in the Florida State League (A+). After a quick promotion to Erie (double A) where he hit a quick 4 homers and drove in 8 runs in just 20 at bats, Detroit summoned Maybin to the Bigs.
Experiencing rookie jitters (best evidenced by his 3:21 BB:K ratio), Maybin hit just .143 with one homer and two RBI in his first 49 at bats. Although Maybin did little to impress in his cup ‘o coffee with the Tigers in 2007, there is much upside to this 20 year old outfielder. Long considered a toolsy player by scouts, Maybin is a threat both on the base paths, and at the plate. Cameron is considered defensively gifted, and his home run power is projected to improve as he matures. We consider Cameron Maybin a potential breakout candidate for Florida in the future and a player who could project to become the next Grady Sizemore. Expect a decent showing in 2008, with excellent long-term value.
3. Evan Longoria ( Tampa Bay , 3B)
Touted by Baseball America as the best pure hitter in college, Longoria was drafted in as the third overall pick in the 2006 draft. Since that time, Longoria has skyrocketed through the minors and if everything goes according to plan he will make his major league debut in 2008. Displaying a wicked combination of power, contact and plate discipline, many scouts believe the 22-year old Longoria will be the American League’s answer to David Wright.
Longoria began his professional career in 2006 where he excelled at three levels of the minor leagues: low, high A and double A. In low A, Longoria managed only 110 at-bats before being promoted to high ball. Indeed, after hitting .327 with 8 homers and a .402 OBP%, the Rays quickly realized he was better suited for a higher level of competition. But high A ball did not prove a challenge either. In only 33 at-bats Longoria hit an astounding .424 with 4 homers and a .487 OBP%. Despite it being his inaugural season, the Rays then promoted Longoria to double A, where he hit .267 with 6 homers in 105 at-bats. For a time it seemed as though double A was the proper level of competition for Longoria.
Despite his mediocre performance in double A in ’06, Longoria tore through the league in 2007, resulting in a promotion to triple A. In 381 at-bats in double A Longoria pounded 21 homers, and hit .307 with a .403 OBP%. In Triple A, he struggled a bit more, but still was impressive. In 104 triple A at-bats, Longoria hit .267 with 5 homers, 8 doubles and a .398 OBP%.
As most baseball fans know, the Rays are perennial losers, so they have nothing to lose by giving Longoria a chance to make it in the bigs. Most indications are that he will start at third base provided he does not have a disastrous spring training. Perhaps this is why sportswriter Ken Rosenthal opined that Longoria could be the 2008 version of Ryan Braun. Expect good gap power, a solid long ball totals, and a batting average in the .275 range, which should improve as Longoria adjusts to major league pitching.
Together these players represent the minor league elite. All three should get extended playing time in 2008 and should be considered by all fantasy baseball managers in deeper leagues who can afford some patience while they develop. While each has the talent to breakout this year, rookies -- regardless of their hype or talent -- are always a bit risky. Expect each to perform well in 2008, but to put up all-star type numbers by 2010 and beyond.