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Buy Low Sell High > Week 5

It has been another one of those weeks.  We’re coming up on the forty game mark where most Major League teams believe they have enough information to judge whether they have a chance this year.  It is also the end of April, the time were the slow bats start to heat up.

Astros Activate IF Ty Wigginton from the 15-day DL.

Wigginton will take over at third base.  His thumb is still hurting him, so he may struggle early.

Cubs Activate OF Alfonso Soriano from the 15-day DL and Option OF Matt Murton to Triple-A Iowa.

Soriano is back in the lineup and says that he’s 100% and looking to steal more.  Murton hit a paltry .214 with no extra base hits while Soriano was down lowering his value trade wise.  There are a ton of rumors that he might be traded, so if you have him on a keeper league or a league with a large bench, keeping him to see if he becomes a regular again wouldn’t be the worst thing you could do.

Colorado Rockies Option LHP Franklin Morales to Triple-A (Extended Spring Training); Recall INF Omar Quintanilla from Triple-A; Send INF Jayson Nix outright to Triple-A; Place RHP Kip Wells on the 15-day DL with a blood clot in his right hand; Recall INF Jonathan Herrera from Triple-A; Acquire LHP Jorge De La Rosa from the Kansas City Royals; Trade RHP Zach Simons to the Tigers for  RHP Jason Grilli; and Designate RHP Jose Capellan for assignment.  

Eight transactions in one day!  It could have been nine if they put Troy Tulowitzki on the DL right away.  Let’s see what they did here.

Franklin Morales will not report to Triple-A, but will report to extended spring training and work with roving pitching coordinator Jim Wright.  Morales is a mess right now, but the extended spring training indicates that this may be a short trip.  At a minimum it has to be ten days unless there is an injury.  Oh wait, they have a few.

To fill Morales’ spot in the rotation, the Rockies took Jorge De La Rosa from the Royals as the player to be named later.  De La Rosa was solid in the minors going 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA in Triple-A, but he was 8-12 with a 5.82 ERA with the Royals last year.  Sticking him in the thin air is only going to make things worse, but he’s a warm body.

With Troy Tulowitzki out and likely on the DL with a torn tendon in his quad and Jeff Baker out with a hurt finger, they need some help in the infield badly.  Clint Barmes will take over at short and will get regular at-bats until possibly the All-Star break.  Jonathan Herrera will take over at second in the short term and Omar Quintanilla will be the utility player.  Jayson Nix was waived instead of optioned and no one took him.  Hitting .111 will do that for you.  Nix could be back if there are anymore injuries.

Then the Rockies traded for Jason Grilli to help shore up the bullpen.  To make room, they designated Jose Capellan for assignment and hope that he’ll clear and accept the assignment to Triple-A.

This is pretty much indicative of how the World Series Runner Up’s season has gone so far.

Yankees Place INF Alex Rodriguez on the 15-day DL with a Grade 2 strain of his right quadriceps, retroactive to April 29; Place RHP Phil Hughes on the 15-day DL with a fractured rib and strained right oblique; Recall RHP Chris Britton from Triple-A; Sign C Chad Moeller to a Major League contract; and Option C Chris Stewart to Triple-A.  

First A-Rod.  I suffered from a Grade 2 strain of my right quadriceps last October in a softball game.  You know it is a Grade 2 when it bruises all up.  It was ugly for a while, but it healed quickly.  I missed only two weeks before I was playing again.  Yes, it hurt, but I could play.  Now, A-Rod is younger, stronger, has a higher pain threshold and better looking than me, so I suspect that he can be up and ready in the minimum if necessary.  My kids a cuter than his, and I work from home, so there...

With Jorge Posada down, Chad Moeller rejoins the team and will play with Jose Molina behind the plate.

Phil Hughes now has a stress fracture to go with the strained right oblique he was originally diagnosed with.  That means that he’s out until at least July.  It may end his season in the Major Leagues if and when the Yankees acquire a veteran to take his place.

Pirates RHP Matt Morris announces his retirement.

Morris decided to retire after he was released by the Pirates.  It is too bad, he was a class act and only 33, but he just couldn’t get anyone out anymore.  Don’t worry about him.  He’ll still get the $11 million the Pirates owe him.

Giants C Eliezer Alfonzo is suspended for fifty games for testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance.

Dude!  You’re not going to get away with this stuff anymore.  They’re checking you.  That probably explains the .266 with 12 home runs in 2006 and the .250 with 1 home run in 2007.

Mariners Recall C Jeff Clement and OF Wladimir Balentien from Triple-A and Designate INF Greg Norton and OF Brad Wilkerson for assignment.

Balentien is a good source of some power at the price of batting average.  He’s going to strike out a lot.  Jeff Clement will get a couple of start behind the plate, but he’s more likely to see time as the DH.

Braves Place RHP John Smoltz on the 15-day DL, retroactive to April 28, with a severely inflamed bicep tendon and inflammation of the rotator cuff in his right shoulder and Activate LHP Tom Glavine from the 15-day DL.

An MRI indicated no damage so he’ll rest and hopefully miss the minimum.  What is more interesting is that he says he’s coming back as a reliever, possibly closer.  He feels that if he cannot reliably pitch into the sixth inning, he shouldn’t start at all.  Glavine returned in time to take his spot.  More interesting is that prospect Jo-Jo Reyes returns to the rotation.  The 23 year-old was 1-1 with a 1.17 ERA in 23 innings.  He has a 3:1 K:W ratio.  He wasn’t particularly impressive last year, but he does have talent.  A couple of good outings and he could stick for good.

Orioles Recall LHP Garrett Olson and RHP Bob McCrory from Triple-A Norfolk.

Olson is similar to Jo-Jo Reyes.  Has some talent, but didn’t do particularly well last year or this spring.  Now he’s been putting up solid numbers in Triple-A.  This would be a keeper bid only.

Phillies Activate OF Shane Victorino from the 15-day DL and Option OF T.J. Bohn to Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

Surprisingly, Shane Victorino has not been starting since he returned.  The Phillies are going with the hot hand.  Jayson Werth is the hot hand.

Rangers Place 3B Hank Blalock on the 15-day DL, retroactive to April 26, with a torn left hamstring.

For a Blalock injury it is minor.  Two to four weeks with a small tear in his left hamstring.

Yankees Place C Jorge Posada on the 15-day DL.

The Yankees cannot catch a break this season.  The good news is that a visit to Dr. James Andrews indicated that he won’t need season ending surgery.  The bad news is that we don’t know how long he might be out.  It might only be the month of May.  It might be the All-Star break.  At the time I was writing this, the test results had not come back.  Obviously, if you have him, you’re monitoring the situation.

Diamondbacks Recall RHP Max Scherzer from Triple-A Tuscon and Option RHP Yusmeiro Petit to Triple-A Tuscon.

Scherzer is the hot new name this week.  The 23 year-old hasn’t had a decision in four starts in Triple-A, but he has struck out 38 in 23 innings with a 1.17 ERA.  He made a single relief appearance so far, 4.3 innings of hitless and walk-less ball while striking out seven.  Certainly he’s the real deal.  Basically, the odds are that he’ll return to Triple-A for seasoning once Doug Davis returns on May 9th.  I guess the way I look at it is like the Brewers’ Yovani Gallardo last year.  When Gallardo was called up, the intention was to give him a start or two and send him down.  When he did so well he stayed.  It is a challenge to bid on someone like this because you are gambling not only on what he’s likely to do if he stays but how long he is going to stay up.

Brewers Option RHP Dave Bush to Triple-A Nashville.

Dave Bush lost his spot in the rotation when Yovani Gallardo returned.  The Brewers didn’t want to give up Bush with Ben Sheets hurting and Bush has an option left, so this makes sense for now.

Rangers Purchased the contract of RHP Sidney Ponson from Triple-A Oklahoma.

Yeah, that Ponson.

Tout Wars Update

After struggling for the first four weeks, we’ve had one heck of a week this week, and things are looking up.  Both my hitting and pitching has been very good this week and I moved from dead last to tenth and the good news is that there is still some more room for improvement.  As it is the end of May, I’ll spend some time looking where I’ve been and where I’m going.

Batting Average (Current: #8 .2654, #7 .2717, #3 .2761)

My strategy was to carry some low-average, high power players like Khalil Greene and John Buck and compensate with my Tier 1 hitters like Mark Teixeira.  I tried to carry two high average hitters for every low average power hitter.  Needless to say, as my Tier 1 hitters struggled this April, I struggled.  The good news is that my Tier 1 hitter have started to hit for average, and I have moved up in the standings accordingly.  This week, I benched Greene with Yuniesky Betancourt who has hit .400 this week and has given me more homeruns in one week than Greene did in four.  Mostly I’ll ride the bats I have.

Home Runs (Current: #11, 34, #10, 35, #3 49)

I was aiming for a buy low strategy on home runs.  I targeted specific players like Connor Jackson who were supposed to be hidden power sources.  That part of the strategy has worked just fine.  Even Brian Roberts and Rafael Furcal have hit for unexpected power.  Sadly, it was guys like Khalil Greene (0), Carlos Delgado (1), Jason Giambi (1), and Delmon Young (0) that have failed to carry the load.  In the case of Delgado and Giambi, I’ve left six home runs on the bench by having the wrong player out.  I may never catch up.  My only hope is to trade my strength, stolen bases, for more power.

Runs (Current: #7 183, #6, 186, #3 213)
RBI (Current: #10 168, #9, 170, #3 204)

Again, my weakness in these areas are caused by my slumping tier 1 players, and I’ve made headway just by getting them on track.

Stolen Bases (Current: #1 40)

Stolen bases are my one bright spot so far.  I have some to trade.  I knew that Brian Roberts (10) and Willy Taveras (11) would give me my share.  I took some flack for paying $16 for Rafael Furcal (7), but he’s healthy now.  Delmon Young is on a pace for 30 as well.  Any trade I make will be to trade stolen bases for power.  I’m going to ride this stolen base peak for a couple of weeks then trade some of it for more power.

ERA (Current #12, 4.77, #11, 4.62, #3 3.26)
WHIP (Current: #11, 1.42, #10, 1.33, #3 1.21)

I had one messed up April and we’ve finally started to turn things around this week.  At the end of week 4, my ERA was 5.22, so you can see with an ERA now at 4.77, what a headway I’ve made.  The league as a whole is carrying a large number of relievers.  Eventually, they will have to switch to more starters about the time that I’ll switch to more relievers.  Hopefully we can keep this going.

Strikeouts (Current: #5, 186, #4, 196, #3 209)

I’ve had my struggles here as well.  A.J. Burnett’s inability to throw his curveball has hurt him.  My messed up closer situation hasn’t helped.  Hopefully, once everyone is pitching at the level I think they are capable of, I can make some movement here.  Once I gain some momentum, I’ll go to a 5:4 starter-to-closer ratio and sacrifice some K’s for ERA, WHIP and Saves.

Saves (Current: #7, 13, #5, 14, #3, 23)

I thought I was strong here with Jonathan Papelbon, Manny Corpas, and Chad Cordero (and Joel Zumaya in the wings).  Clearly, I was wrong.  Even Papelbon hasn’t been earning saves this week, but the wins are appreciated.  I made an aggressive bid for Brian Fuentes mostly because I had to.  The $36 of FAAB money stings, but I have both Corpas and Fuentes for now so whoever closes for the Rockies I have.  Chad Cordero will go on the DL hopefully by the time this article is published and I’ll be in better shape.  In the end,

Where the ERA has gone, so has my WHIP.  Again, I’ve made some headway with the solid week.

The good news is that the meat of my lineup is beginning to warm up and things are looking better.  I have a long ways to go to make up for the slow start and in the case of home runs, I may never

JP Kastner is the winner of the 2007 Strat-O-Matic Baseball Online Expert League World Series.  In five seasons of SOMBOE, JP Kastner has five winning seasons, four playoff appearances, three World Series appearances and now one World Championship.  He is in his third season in the Tout Wars mixed league.

 

 

 

posted @ Friday, May 02, 2008 9:49 AM by JP Kastner

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