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A Look Ahead > Week 17

A.L. TWO-START STUDS

John Danks (KC, @Det) – Remember when Danks, Edinson Volquez, and Thomas Diamond formed the “DVD Trio” in the Rangers system? Things have worked out pretty for the first two, but poor Diamond, once thought to be the best of the bunch, is languishing with a 7.12 ERA in AA this year after sitting out 2007 with Tommy John surgery. Still, the DVD Trio seems to have turned out better than the Four Aces or Generation K.

Scott Kazmir (Tor, @KC) – Maybe it’s just because I live in an NL town, but I don’t seem to hear much about Kazmir, at least not nearly as much as Tim Lincecum. Here’s something to keep in mind, though: Kazmir is a scant six months younger than Lincecum, and has been pitching like an ace in the brutal AL East for four years now.

Cliff Lee (@Sea, Min) – Wins are a stupid individual stat, but it’s still fun to point out that Cleveland has 42 wins, and Lee has 12 of ‘em. Second on the team, with 6, is CC Sabathia, and, well, he isn’t even on team anymore.

A.L. TWO-START SCRUBS

Justin Duchscherer (@NYY, Tex) – Okay, not a scrub, but he’s not Cy Young (or Cliff Lee), either. To wit: his xFIP, which is what his ERA would look like with a normalized home run rate and without the effects of the A’s defense, is 4.17—and that’s not adjusted for McAfee Coliseum’s offense-suppressing tendencies (three-year park factor of 93). Simply put, he’s getting lucky, and Billy Beane should trade him now, while he’s at the acme of his value. (Which brings to mind the question of whether any team has ever traded away 80% of their starting rotation in less than a year. Also, if you’re weird like me, it brings to mind the question of whether Duke is the first player in Major League history to have “chsch” in his name. Answer: he’s not.)

Radhames Liz (Tor, LAA) – As if having Daniel Cabrera wasn’t enough, the Orioles are now blessed with Daniel Cabrera 2: Electric Boogaloo.

Carlos Silva (Cle, @Tor) – On the one hand, Silva has struck out five batters in each of his last two starts, something he hadn’t done since April 7th. On the other hand, everything else.

A.L. TWO-START WILDCARD

Brian Bannister (@ChW, Bal) – This is really just an excuse to link to Joe Posnanski’s excellent blog, but can Brian Bannister reinvent himself as a power pitcher? If any soft-tossing finesse guy can, it’s Bannister, who’s quite sharp and very well-read about baseball analysis.

N.L. TWO-START STUDS

Cole Hamels (@Flo, Atl) – Hamels leads the NL in innings pitched and is second in WHIP. As of right now, I think this here is your Cy Young (apologies to Dan Haren).

Tim Lincecum (Mil, Ari) – He may not be Scott Kazmir, but we can hardly hold that against him.

Brandon Webb (LAD, @SF) – It’s funny: every it seems like I have one Giants pitcher and one Giants opponent in this space, which is a product of San Francisco having great pitching but a craptastic offense.

N.L. TWO-START SCRUBS

Brandon Backe (ChC, @Mil) – Backe’s working on an 11.7-inning scoreless streak. I don’t think that streak is gonna make it to 13.

Jo-Jo Reyes (Was, @Phi) – Reyes hasn’t made it past the fifth inning in three of his last four starts.

John Van Benschoten (@Hou, SD) – If Adam Loewen can do it, why can’t JVB? After he put up a .440/.551/.982 line at Kent State in 2001, everyone expected the Pirates to use him as an outfielder, but the confounded expectations and now have themselves a mediocre AAA pitcher instead of a starting outfielder. Reason #5129 why you should quit being a Pirates fan right now and hop on the Brewers bandwagon.

N.L. TWO-START WILDCARD

Josh Johnson (Phi, @ChC) – My pick for 2006 Rookie of the Year (Hanley Ramirez’ defense with the assist), Johnson made it back to the big leagues after effectively missing two years with nerve damage, forearm stiffness, and finally Tommy John surgery. His 6/0 K/BB in his first start (5 innings) was very encouraging, but I have no idea what to expect from him the rest of the year. A road start against the Cubs will be a stern early progress report.

QUICK HITS

I’ll be quick indeed: go see The Dark Knight. It’s the brilliant movie you need, not the brilliant movie you deserve.

posted @ Sunday, July 20, 2008 4:05 AM by Eric Johnson

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