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The Steve Smith Dilemma

The recent announcement by the Carolina Panthers of Steve Smith’s two-game suspension to start the 2008 season leaves fantasy players in a quandary. Smith’s pre-suspension ADP of 28 means that he would be expected to have gone late in the second round or early in the third round of fantasy drafts. Where should he go now? How low does he have to fall before he is on your team? We asked four of our writers–Mike Mady, Andy Goldstein, Brian Walton, and Buck Davidson–for their opinion. And so as not to give away any of their own draft strategies, their comments are unattributed and in no particular order.

1) I think Steve Smith is a well-meaning person. Sometimes his temper gets the best of him, but he is still passionate about football and winning and all that jazz. Unfortunately, the two-game suspension is not Smith's only red flag this season. His yardage-per-game total has fallen drastically since 2005, he has shown a proclivity for injury, and his offensive teammates have been both fragile and well, not good. The Panthers' running game will get the bulk of the team's production and Smith's value should be bumped down 10-15 slots.

2) Prior to his suspension, you could have made a decent case for Smith as a low-end No. 1 fantasy wideout. That's not really the case now, though I still consider him one of the top three No. 2 wide receivers. As such, he's worth a pick in the middle-to-late third round (ADP 30-36), or roughly half a round lower than his current slot. If I did take Smith at the end of the third round, I'd probably be compelled to take another "1a" option with my fourth-round pick. In that same vein, if the last of the No. 1 receivers was still there at, say, pick 33, I’d grab him and roll the dice that Smith made it back to me at pick 40. A healthy Jake Delhomme could mean the return of some big numbers for Smith, and he could turn out to be a bargain late in the third.

3) In a non-scientific manner, I'd estimate that Smith should drop by about a 15%, since he is losing two of 16 games. So, that would move Smith down around four slots, from 28 to 32.

4) The recent news of Steve Smith's suspension isn't an encouraging sign for fantasy owners. Smith has been drafted, on average, around the 28th pick in drafts, meaning that he is being selected in the early-third round as a fantasy team's top wideout. Smith does have tremendous upside and big-play capability; however, it is difficult to surrender such a high pick for someone who will, at most, play 14 games. Based on Smith's performance over the last two seasons, 14 games translates to roughly 82 receptions for 1,046 yards and seven touchdowns–respectable numbers, but hardly worthy of a third- or even fourth-round selection. If Smith fell to me in the fifth, I'd be happy to snatch him up.

posted @ Sunday, August 10, 2008 8:36 AM by Marc Meltzer

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