The recent announcement by the NFL that Denver Broncos wide receiver
Brandon Marshall would begin the season serving a three-game suspension
to start the 2008 season (which could be reduced to two games) leaves
fantasy players wondering just how high Marshall should go. We asked
four of our writers–Mike Mady, Andy Goldstein, Brian Walton, and Buck
Davidson–for their opinion (so as not to give away any of their own
draft strategies, their comments are unattributed and in no particular
order).
1) In a non-scientific manner, I'd estimate Marshall should drop by about by about a 15%, since he is losing two of 16 games. That would move him from 50 to about 60.
2) Brandon Marshall followed up a tremendous 2007 with a turbulent off-season. Fantasy owners have voiced their concern by selecting Marshall, on average, around pick 50, or early fourth round. With the recent news that Marshall will be suspended for three games (with the possibility it could be reduced to two) fantasy owners now can make more educated decisions while considering Marshall. Entering his third season, Marshall has tremendous upside. He recorded 102 receptions, 1325 yards, and seven touchdowns a year ago but used all 16 games to accomplish those numbers. I would still be comfortable with Marshall as my team's No. 2 receiver, assuming I had already selected two running backs, a quarterback, and No. 1 wideout–meaning I would not select Marshall earlier than the fifth round.
3) Marshall worries me a bit more than Steve Smith, mainly because he has a history of off-the-field problems. One more slip-up and the hammer could fall hard on the talented but troubled wideout. It looks like Marshall should get his suspension reduced to two games, and if opposing fantasy owners don’t pick up on this he could fall too far in some fantasy drafts. I see him as a mid-level No. 2 wideout with some serious upside if he finds the end zone a bit more often this season. I’d grab him early in the fifth if I was in need of a solid No. 2 wideout, but he’s more likely to go late in the fifth round in most drafts. His upside potential somewhat offsets the suspension’s effects in my mind, since I considered him a bargain at ADP 53. There were worries that he might draw a four-game suspension, so a two-gamer isn’t so bad after all.
4) If it weren't for the legal issues, Brandon Marshall would be a safe stud. Unfortunately, of all the wideouts in the game, he is looking like the most troubled at this point. He's been arrested three times and the cops have been called to his home more than twice that number of times due to issues such as, allegedly, domestic abuse. Marshall is treading on very thin ice, and his two or three game suspension could still turn into more than that. In a dynasty format, he still has about the same value. His potential is too strong. But in a redraft? This year? I'd pass.